灣區房地產市場快訊 as 1/5/08

December 2007 hadonly 488 completed sales (closings) in SCC. That is the fewest of any month since 1984. Inventory, reached its peak of 4,925 on October 27, 2007. This was the highest level of inventory since 1998 and is 206% of the 8-year average. Since mid-November, inventory has been decreasing at a rate that is slower than normal, causing the seasonally adjusted inventory to climb. We believe that inventory will likely begin to increase more rapidly than normal in the near future.

Sales volume has actually improved slight more than normal, causing an increase from 51% to 59% of the 8 years average. Even with this improvement, sales volume remains dramatically reduced at only 59% of the 8-year average.

The increase in supply coupled with the decrease in demand has moved much of SCC into what we consider a Buyer's market. The notable exception is the area close to the San Mateo County - Santa Clara County border. The demand for housing close to the SMC/SCC border remains strong causing that area to appreciate. The San Mateo - Santa Clara County border tends to lead local real estate market trends. This area is doing much better than either SCC or SMC as a whole. The current trend seems to be closing in on this border from the outlaying areas.

Since 1998, the real estate market within Santa Clara County has normally been fairly homogeneous. 2007 has seen dramatic geographic and price splits. The expensive communities (Palo Altos, Los Altos, Mt View, Sunnyvale, Cupertino, Saratoga, Los Gatos and Almaden Valley) are doing well and are at or near their record high prices. The affordable and out laying communities (East, Central, and South San Jose) are doing poorly. These factors artificially increased the median prices.

The Mt View, Los Altos and Palo Alto area has only 65 Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI). Los Gatos and Saratoga with 115 DUI. We would consider both of these regions to be a Seller's market. Other areas such as Santa Clara, Willow Glen, Cambrian and Campbell are slower with 160 DUI and North Valley, Milpitas, Blossom Valley have 290 DUI. We would consider both these regions to be Buyer's market. East Valley, Central San Jose and South San Jose have 705 DUI and South County is at 754 both extremely slow markets.

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